Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 609 (S03E24) produced
three C-class flares including a C7/Sf at 13/1330Z. This region
underwent rapid growth in the past 36 hours and now exhibits a
moderately complex beta-gamma configuration. CME activity was
observed off the east limb. New Regions 612 (N10E07) and 613
(S08E83) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Region 609 will likely produce C-class activity and
may soon possess potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active to minor storm period between 13/0600 - 0900Z. Occasional
periods of sustained southward IMF Bz account for the most disturbed
periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 101 Predicted 14 May-16 May 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 13 May 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 010/012-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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