Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 596 (S08E04)
produced an M1/1n event at 22/0219 UTC. This region continues to be
the region of interest as it approaches the center of the visible
solar disk. With a white light area coverage of 400 millionths and
a magnetic beta-gamma configuration the region has also displayed a
weak delta in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 596 remains capable of producing an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 117 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 010/010-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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