Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 596 (S07E19)
produced the only C-class events in the past 24 hours. The daily
consensus for this region has it as a magnetic beta-gamma
configuration, however, earlier in the period a small delta
configuration developed. A new region was numbered today as Region
598 (S05W30).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 596 is expected to continue producing C-class flares with a
chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 113 Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 21 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 005/008-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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