Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 April 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 596 (S09E31) remains the largest region on the visible solar disk at 340 millionths of white light coverage. A new region was numbered today as Region 597 (S06W60).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 596 has the potential for continued C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated periods of active conditions are possible on 23 April due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Apr 111
  Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr  115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        20 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Apr  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  005/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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