Viewing archive of Monday, 19 April 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 596 (S09E44) has produced two C-class events in the last 24 hours. This region has shown some minor mixing along with significant growth in both area and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 596 is expected to produce additional C-class flares with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Apr 113
  Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr  115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  006/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  005/010-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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