Viewing archive of Monday, 19 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 596 (S09E44) has
produced two C-class events in the last 24 hours. This region has
shown some minor mixing along with significant growth in both area
and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 596 is expected to produce additional C-class flares with a
slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 113 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 005/010-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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