Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Activity
consisted of low level B-class flares until Region 591 (S16W38)
produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 15/1644Z. This region remains
a magnetic beta-gamma-delta configuration although the delta
structure seen in the dominant lead polarity spot appears very weak.
It also continues to display reverse polarity characteristics. The
remainder of the active regions were quiescent during the period.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 591 has the potential of producing isolated low
level M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 097 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 001/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 004/010-006/010-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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