Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. A single
B-class flare occurred at 13/0532Z on the northeast limb. There was
no other significant activity observed today. Region 588 (S13W80)
has shown decreasing area coverage and has simplified in magnetic
complexity to an alpha configuration. New Region 592 (S12E59) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance of low level activity. Increased
emissions on the east limb were observed in NOAA SXI imagery and
suggests returning regions over the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 093 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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