Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 April 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 588 (S16W13) produced a C7/Sf flare at 08/1019Z. This event had an associated tenflare (190 sfu) and a full halo CME on LASCO imagery. No significant changes were observed in Region 588, which maintains a reverse polarity beta magnetic configuration. Coronal mass ejections were also observed to originate from behind the northwest limb. The first of these CMEs occurred at 08/0148Z and had an associated Type II radio sweep (709 km/s). A long duration x-ray enhancement accompanied the second CME at around 08/1900Z. No other significant changes or activity were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Region 588 is expected to produce occasional C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods during local nighttime hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storming. There has been no obvious transient passage at ACE yet from the full halo CME observed on LASCO imagery on 6 April. Occasional minor storm periods are expected in the next 24 hours from this CME. Another full halo CME was observed today and is expected to produce active to minor storm periods on 11 April.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
Class M 15%15%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Apr 094
  Predicted    09 Apr-11 Apr  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        08 Apr 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Apr  022/030
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  020/030-015/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 30%20%30%
Major-severe storm 15%10%15%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 35%30%35%
Major-severe storm 20%15%20%

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