Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 586 (S18W80) produced four, low-level C-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region 582 (N14E45) continues to be the largest group on the disk but was quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event, with Region 582 being the most likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind data show the continuation and intensification of the high speed stream. The velocity increased from around 600 km/s up to about 900 km/s between 1500Z and 2100Z. At the same time density decreased, temperature increased, and Alfven wave activity in the magnetic field components appeared to increase.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field should be mostly unsettled to active for the next three days (27-29 March) as the high speed stream is likely to persist.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Mar 128
  Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar  125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        27 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

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