Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Newly visible Region 582 (N16E72) rotated onto the disk, elevating activity levels. It produced an M1/Sf at 24/2329UTC, and an M2/Sf at 0439UTC. The region emerged on the invisible disk and arrives with hot plage and a bright x-ray corona. Elsewhere, the six other visible regions were mostly quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, due to additional M-level activity from Region 582.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE data show a slight increase in solar wind radial speed and magnetic field strength through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit was high for a short time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled early, then slightly more disturbed through the interval. A high speed stream may begin to affect the field late on 28 March.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 127
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  130/135/130
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  005/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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