Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class events
occurred, as the general level of activity increased. Region 577
(S01W14) generated a C5/Sf flare at 1426 UTC. More recently, an
impulsive C7 limb flare appeared to have its origin from N15E90.
This soon to appear region is showing a hot corona in x-rays
and is also visible in H-alpha. Two new regions were assigned:
Region 580 (S07W07) and Region 581 (S03E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
low. Isolated C-class flares are likely, with a slight chance of an
M-class flare. Watch the northeast limb for the imminent arrival of
a new bright region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through 27 March.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 120 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 005/010-005/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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