Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class events occurred, as the general level of activity increased. Region 577 (S01W14) generated a C5/Sf flare at 1426 UTC. More recently, an impulsive C7 limb flare appeared to have its origin from N15E90. This soon to appear region is showing a hot corona in x-rays and is also visible in H-alpha. Two new regions were assigned: Region 580 (S07W07) and Region 581 (S03E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue low. Isolated C-class flares are likely, with a slight chance of an M-class flare. Watch the northeast limb for the imminent arrival of a new bright region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through 27 March.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 120
  Predicted    25 Mar-27 Mar  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  005/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  005/010-005/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm 05%05%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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