Viewing archive of Monday, 22 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 574 (S03W13) produced a C8/Sf flare at 22/0616Z. This region continues to decay and has simplified in magnetic complexity to a beta configuration. Region 578 (N16E20) shows signs of decreasing area and produced a number of B-class and minor C-class flares today. New Region 579 (S11E48) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 574 and 578 have the potential for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Mar 116
  Predicted    23 Mar-25 Mar  110/115/120
  90 Day Mean        22 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  008/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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