Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 576 (S07W91), while transiting the west limb, produced the largest flare of the day; a C6 flare at 21/0952Z. Region 578 (N15E34) continues to exhibit slow growth and while maintaining a beta magnetic configuration, shows evidence of mixing polarities. The majority of the B-class and C-class activity observed today originated from Region 578. Region 574 (S04E01) continues a slow decay but maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 574 and 578 have C-class potential. A small chance of isolated moderate activity is possible from Region 578.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Mar 111
  Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar  110/110/115
  90 Day Mean        21 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Mar  008/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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