Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 578 (N15E47) produced a C1 flare at 20/2025Z along with eight B-class flares. This region grew in area coverage and exhibits weak polarity mixing but still maintains a beta magnetic configuration. Region 574 (S04E14) continues in a slow decay and has produce little activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance of isolated moderate level activity. Region 578 has C-class flare potential and a small chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. One period of isolated active conditions was observed at the Boulder magnetometer. The Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated periods of active conditions may occur on 21 March, particularly during local night time hours.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M15%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 114
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  010/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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