Viewing archive of Friday, 19 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 578 (N15E60) produced an M1/1f flare at 18/2236Z near the east limb. This region exhibited slight growth since yesterday and produced a number of minor C-class flares. Region 574 (S04E28) has shown some decrease in area size and lost the weak delta configuration that began forming in the intermediate spots yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity. Region 574 and 578 have the potential for minor M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak coronal hole may arrive on 20 March or 21 March. No significant activity is expected from this coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
Class M25%15%15%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Mar 112
  Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        19 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Mar  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  010/012-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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