Viewing archive of Friday, 19 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 578
(N15E60) produced an M1/1f flare at 18/2236Z near the east limb.
This region exhibited slight growth since yesterday and produced a
number of minor C-class flares. Region 574 (S04E28) has shown some
decrease in area size and lost the weak delta configuration that
began forming in the intermediate spots yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity. Region 574
and 578 have the potential for minor M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak coronal hole
may arrive on 20 March or 21 March. No significant activity is
expected from this coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 112 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 010/012-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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