Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 574 (S02E43) produced the largest flare of the period, an
M1/Sf occurring at 18/0517Z. Multiple lesser B and C-class flares
occurred in this region today. Sunspot area coverage continues to
show a steady increase. Newly numbered Region 578 (N15E76)
currently shows a single sunspot. Even so, several B and C-class
flares were observed from this region today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 574 continues to be capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A brief
active period was observed between 18/0000 and 0300Z at the middle
latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 21 March
may experience isolated active conditions due to the combination of
a solar sector boundary crossing and the potential of a glancing
blow from the C1 flare and related CME from yesterday.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 115 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 006/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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