Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region 574 (S02E56) showed significant growth in sunspot coverage and magnetic complexity since yesterday. The dominant central sunspots appear to be merging to form a small magnetic delta complex. This region produced multiple B and C-class flares throughout the period. Region 572 (N19W72) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 17/0931Z with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 1207 km/s. In response to this flare a CME was seen emanating from the solar northwest limb (on LASCO imagery) which does not appear to be Earth directed. Region 570 (S14W80) continues to show a slow, steady decay. Regions 575 (S18W02), 576 (S18W38), and 577 (S01E77) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 574 has a small chance of producing an isolated low-level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M20%15%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 110
  Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  005/008-005/008-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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