Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 573
(S12E20) produced the largest flare during the period, a B7 x-ray
event occurring at 16/1551Z. Region 570 (S14W66) remains a magnetic
beta-gamma complex. Newly numbered Region 574 (S02E70) has yet to
fully rotate into view for a good analysis. An eruptive prominence
occurred on the northwest limb, which began at 16/1530Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 570 and 574 both have the potential
to produce C-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 110 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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