Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 573 (S12E20) produced the largest flare during the period, a B7 x-ray event occurring at 16/1551Z. Region 570 (S14W66) remains a magnetic beta-gamma complex. Newly numbered Region 574 (S02E70) has yet to fully rotate into view for a good analysis. An eruptive prominence occurred on the northwest limb, which began at 16/1530Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Regions 570 and 574 both have the potential to produce C-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M 10%10%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 110
  Predicted    17 Mar-19 Mar  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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