Viewing archive of Monday, 15 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region 570 (S14W46) continues in a slow decay phase, exhibiting only occasional minor plage fluctuations. A 10 degree filament eruption occurred at 15/0830Z from near N22W28. An associate weak CME was observed on LASCO imagery, but it is not expected to be geoeffective. No other significant activity or changes were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare in Region 570.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated minor storm period between 15/0000 - 0300Z. Solar wind speed is still slightly elevated, but is in slow decline. The IMF Bz was predominantly southward near -5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 101
  Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  100/105/115
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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