Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 570 (S13W32)
produced occasional B-class activity including a B3 flare with an
associated 130 sfu Tenflare at 14/2035Z. This region continues to
slowly decay and the delta configuration that persisted for the past
several days is no longer evident. No other significant activity or
changes were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible from Region 570.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Slightly elevated solar
wind speed with periods of sustained southward Bz produced the
disturbed conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 103 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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