Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 570 (S13W20) produced C1 flares at 12/2341Z and 13/1354Z. The latter was very impulsive and had associated minor centimetric radio bursts and a 5,300 sfu burst on 245 MHz. This region continues to slowly decay, but a clear delta configuration persists within one of the three distinct penumbral fields in the leader spots. The new bipolar spot group numbered yesterday as Region 572 (N19W19) continues to develop, but activity has been limited to occasional point brightenings. No other significant activity was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Further C-class activity is likely from Region 570. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The high speed coronal hole stream that produced several minor storm periods in recent days is now subsiding. Solar wind speed decreased to below 500 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 Mev electron flux at geoshnchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 104
  Predicted    14 Mar-16 Mar  100/100/110
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  019/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  012/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  010/012-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm 15%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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