Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 570(S14E20)
produced several B-class flares. The region grew slightly in size
and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 571
(S14W13) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce occassional C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed has been steady at about 675 km/s from the effects
of a geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
minor storm conditions possible on 11 March and early into 12 March.
Activity should decrease to quiet and unsettled levels on 13 March
as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 113 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 011/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 025/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 020/030-018/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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