Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 570(S14E20) produced several B-class flares. The region grew slightly in size and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 571 (S14W13) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 570 may produce occassional C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speed has been steady at about 675 km/s from the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm conditions possible on 11 March and early into 12 March. Activity should decrease to quiet and unsettled levels on 13 March as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Mar 113
  Predicted    11 Mar-13 Mar  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  011/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  025/045
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  020/030-018/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 30%30%25%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 45%45%45%
Major-severe storm 15%15%10%

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