Viewing archive of Friday, 5 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 570 (S13E84) produced several C-class flares today, the largest was a C6 x-ray event that occurred at 05/0912Z. Currently, a large asymmetrical sunspot has emerged onto the visible disk and further analysis of this region is pending. Region 567 (S12W42) underwent no significant changes today and flare production was limited to several B-class events. The largest was a B9 x-ray flare that occurred at 05/0103Z. LASCO imagery does not depict any significant CME activity associated with today's events. The remainder of the disk was fairly quiescent today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 567 exhibits the magnetic complexity to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
Class M40%50%50%
Class X10%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Mar 107
  Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        05 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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