Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 567 (S12W16) produced two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 02/2149 UTC and a C1 at 02/2327 UTC. A CME was observed from the southeast limb, beginning at 02/2354 UTC, but was not earthward directed and was probably from a backside source. Region 567 is showing slow growth and may be building up some weak shear along its backward S-shaped polarity inversion line. The remainder of the disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to low for the next three days (04-06 March). Region 567 is expected to produce additional C-class level activity. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an interval of active to minor storm levels between 0900-1500 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with some isolated active periods for 04 March. Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 05 March and quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 06 March. The decrease in activity is expected from the slow decline of the high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Mar 090
  Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar  095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        03 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Mar  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  012/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

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