Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 567 (S12W16) produced
two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 02/2149 UTC and
a C1 at 02/2327 UTC. A CME was observed from the southeast limb,
beginning at 02/2354 UTC, but was not earthward directed and was
probably from a backside source. Region 567 is showing slow growth
and may be building up some weak shear along its backward S-shaped
polarity inversion line. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to low for
the next three days (04-06 March). Region 567 is expected to produce
additional C-class level activity. There is a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
interval of active to minor storm levels between 0900-1500 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with some isolated active periods for 04
March. Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 05 March and quiet
to unsettled levels are expected for 06 March. The decrease in
activity is expected from the slow decline of the high speed solar
wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 090 Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 012/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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