Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 March 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. There was only one flare during the past 24 hours, a B2 at 0659 UTC from departing Region 564 on the west limb at N15. Region 567 (S12W04) is now the largest group on the disk with area of 140 millionths, but was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (03-05 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data show persistence of a high speed wind stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. There was a gradual overall decline in solar wind velocity from around 700 km/s down to about 620 km/s during the past 24 hours, suggesting the high speed stream is beginning to wane. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for 03-04 March. Conditions should decline to generally unsettled by 05 March.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Mar 099
  Predicted    03 Mar-05 Mar  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        02 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  012/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Mar  018/018
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 25%25%20%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm 30%30%25%
Major-severe storm 20%20%10%

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