Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There was only one flare
during the past 24 hours, a B2 at 0659 UTC from departing Region 564
on the west limb at N15. Region 567 (S12W04) is now the largest
group on the disk with area of 140 millionths, but was quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (03-05 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind data show
persistence of a high speed wind stream from a favorably positioned
coronal hole. There was a gradual overall decline in solar wind
velocity from around 700 km/s down to about 620 km/s during the past
24 hours, suggesting the high speed stream is beginning to wane. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past
24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
03-04 March. Conditions should decline to generally unsettled by 05
March.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 099 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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