Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 February 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only one flare occurred during the past 24 hours, a B4 at 0617 UTC from Region 564 (N13W67). This Region continues to dominate the disk in size and complexity, but appears to be in slow decline as it approaches west limb. A CME was observed on the southwest limb by LASCO, beginning at 1230 UTC. The plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be about 500 km/s. EIT 195 difference images show that the CME must have originated from behind the solar disk since the associated activity is first seen off the southwest limb starting at 1200 UTC. The CME is not earthward directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There continues to be a chance, however, for an isolated M-class event from Region 564.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. Although unsettled to active levels predominated, there was an interval of mostly minor storm level activity between 0900-1500 UTC. Solar wind data show that the activity is being driven by a high speed stream which is associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active, with possible minor storm periods, for tomorrow (1 March). Unsettled to active conditions are expected for the 2nd day (2 March), and mostly unsettled should prevail by 3 March.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Feb 110
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  110/105/100
  90 Day Mean        29 Feb 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  014/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Feb  016/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/29M3.2
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X2.45
22014X1.45
32023X1.2
42024M3.2
52001M3.13
ApG
1199928G2
2200337G1
3201328G1
4200122G1
5199820G1
*since 1994

Social networks