Viewing archive of Friday, 27 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 564 (N14W42)
produced an M5.7 at 2230 UTC on the 26th. No CME activity was noted
with this eruption. The region continues to be active with several
point brightenings noted throughout the period. Region 565 (S04W21)
has remained unchanged since the 26th. Region 567 (S14E50) was
newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 564 continues to have the potential to produce
isolated major flaring through the 30th.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated periods of active levels at 0600 and 2100 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the 28th. Late on
the 29th and continuing through the 30th, a recurrent high speed
solar wind stream is expected to generate isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 122 Predicted 28 Feb-01 Mar 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar 008/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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