Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 564
(N14W27) produced an X1/2n major flare which occurred at 26/0203Z.
There was no indication of a CME in association with this flare on
LASCO imagery. Multiple B and C-class flares were observed
throughout the period. Many intermediate sunspots merged into a
single large penumbral magnetic delta complex. This region has
shown steady growth throughout the day. Region 565 (S05W07)
decreased in areal sunspot coverage although penumbra is now visible
in both polarities. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 564 has the potential to produce isolated
major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 29
February may experience active conditions due to a recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 29 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 121 Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 008/012-008/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 29 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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