Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 564 (N14W27) produced an X1/2n major flare which occurred at 26/0203Z. There was no indication of a CME in association with this flare on LASCO imagery. Multiple B and C-class flares were observed throughout the period. Many intermediate sunspots merged into a single large penumbral magnetic delta complex. This region has shown steady growth throughout the day. Region 565 (S05W07) decreased in areal sunspot coverage although penumbra is now visible in both polarities. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 564 has the potential to produce isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 29 February may experience active conditions due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 29 Feb
Class M60%60%60%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Feb 121
  Predicted   27 Feb-29 Feb  125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        26 Feb 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  003/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  004/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb  008/012-008/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 29 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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