Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. There have been several minor C-class events with the most significant being a C8.0 from Region 564 (N14W14) on the 25th at 1225 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 564, which will remain on the visible disk through 28 February, continues to have the potential for C-class activity, with a very slight chance of an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Feb 119
  Predicted    26 Feb-28 Feb  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        25 Feb 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Feb  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  012/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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