Viewing archive of Monday, 23 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 564 (N13E13)
produced a C1 flare at 22/2321Z. Region 564 continues to grow in
area coverage but has simplified in magnetic complexity. The
polarity mixing observed yesterday in the intermediate spots appears
to be predominantly negative polarity today. New Region 565(S05E35)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to very low
to low. Region 564 has the potential for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 104 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 008/010-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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