Viewing archive of Monday, 23 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 564 (N13E13) produced a C1 flare at 22/2321Z. Region 564 continues to grow in area coverage but has simplified in magnetic complexity. The polarity mixing observed yesterday in the intermediate spots appears to be predominantly negative polarity today. New Region 565(S05E35) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to very low to low. Region 564 has the potential for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Feb 104
  Predicted    24 Feb-26 Feb  105/105/110
  90 Day Mean        23 Feb 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Feb  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  008/010-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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