Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 564
(N14E42) produced a B6 flare at 1444Z. Other spot groups on the
disk produced little activity and are magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with one period of
unsettled conditions observed at 1500Z. Greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible, due to a small and variable high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 098 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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