Viewing archive of Friday, 20 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. There was no reported flare activity during the period. Region 562 (S11E59) is a two spot simple beta region. Newly numbered Region 563 (S21E66) is an alpha group. Region 561 (N02W01) is the only other spotted region on the solar disk, displaying a single small penumbral spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak recurrent high speed coronal hole stream may produce isolated active conditions on 22 and 23 February.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Feb 095
  Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        20 Feb 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Feb  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  008/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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