Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels today. Spotless active Region 556 (N15W80) produced the largest event during the period, a B5 x-ray flare that occurred at 18/1708Z. Several lesser B-class flares comprised the remainder of the recorded activity today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high (neared very high) levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Feb 098
  Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  100/095/100
  90 Day Mean        18 Feb 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Feb  004/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  008/008-008/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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