Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 554 (S09W28) is in slow decay and has been quiet. Region 559 (N08W56) produced occasional point brightenings and isolated B-class flare activity. New Regions 560 (S16E30) and 561 (N02E64) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Regions 554 and 559.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to minor storm levels. This disturbance began on 12 February following the onset of a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speeds this period generally ranged from 650 to 700 km/s. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm periods possible through 16 February. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods on 17 and 18 February as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 102
  Predicted    16 Feb-18 Feb  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  012/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  018/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  015/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm 25%20%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%01%

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