Viewing archive of Friday, 13 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. X-ray flux remains
at background levels. Two new regions were numbered today: Region
557 (S11W32) and Region 558 (S15E36).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Region 554 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominantly active, with one period
of isolated minor storming. The geomagnetic field is still under
the influence of high speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective
coronal hole, although solar wind speeds have begun to subside. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 14 February, with isolated
minor storming possible. Activity should decrease to quiet or
unsettled levels on 15 and 16 February as the coronal hole rotates
out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 108 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 016/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 015/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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