Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. X-ray flux remains steady at background levels, with very little fluxuation. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. Regions 551 (S08W68) and 554 (S10E12) may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm conditions. Solar wind speed increased to around 700 km/s during the period, and has been steady for the past 12 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels for a brief period today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions through 13 February, under the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. A decrease in geomagnetic activity is expected 14 and 15 February as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 112
  Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  012/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  012/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  015/020-015/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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