Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Regions 549 (N12E79), 551 (S08W55) and 555 (S14E45) produced a few B-class flares. No significant changes were observed to regions on the visible disk. New Region 556 (N16E22) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 554 and 551 may produce C-class flares. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm conditions. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at ACE about 10/2320 UTC. ACE solar wind speed increased steadily from 380 km/s at 11/1600 UTC to 450 km/s at 2200 UTC, indicating that the earth may be entering an expected coronal hole high speed wind stream. Periods of southward Bz occurred from 1100 UTC to 1800 UTC and resulted in increased geomagnetic activity towards the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on 12 and 13 February as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective position. Activity should subside to quiet to active levels on 14 February.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 114
  Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  010/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  015/020-015/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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