Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Regions 549
(N12E79), 551 (S08W55) and 555 (S14E45) produced a few B-class
flares. No significant changes were observed to regions on the
visible disk. New Region 556 (N16E22) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 554 and 551 may produce C-class flares. There is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm conditions. A
solar sector boundary crossing was observed at ACE about 10/2320
UTC. ACE solar wind speed increased steadily from 380 km/s at
11/1600 UTC to 450 km/s at 2200 UTC, indicating that the earth may
be entering an expected coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Periods of southward Bz occurred from 1100 UTC to 1800 UTC and
resulted in increased geomagnetic activity towards the end of the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on 12 and 13 February
as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective
position. Activity should subside to quiet to active levels on 14
February.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 114 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 010/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 015/020-015/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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