Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Regions 551 (S08W41)
and 554 (S10E38) have produced numerous B class flares. No
significant changes were observed to regions on the visible disk.
No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 551 and 554 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with active and minor
storm conditions possible on 12 and 13 November as a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 117 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 005/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 008/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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