Viewing archive of Monday, 9 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region 554 (S08E52) produced numerous B and C-class flares today. Ten C-class flares were recorded with the largest being a C9 x-ray event that occurred at 09/1102Z. LASCO imagery has shown little, if any associated CME signatures during the past 24 hours of activity from this region. Magnetic analysis depicts a delta configuration within the dominant intermediate spot. Region 551 (S06W27) did not manage any flare production during the interval, although surging and point brightenings were observed throughout the period. The gamma structures in the central and trailing portions of the sunspot group remain intact. Region 555 (S14E72) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 551 and 554 both have the potential to produce M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. 12 February may experience active conditions due to a solar sector boundary crossing, preceding an anticipated recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 118
  Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  002/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  004/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  006/010-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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