Viewing archive of Friday, 6 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The activity today consisted of several minor low level B-class flares. Region 551 (S06E13) has shown some growth in penumbral coverage since yesterday. The gamma structure in the trailing portion of the region remains intact. Region 549 (N14W09) has undergone decay in sunspot count and areal coverage. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 551 has the potential to produce an isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A period of minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes between 06/0300 and 0600Z due to a high speed stream (near 600km/s) and sustained southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from predominantly quiet to active levels throughout the period. Day three may experience isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Feb 107
  Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        06 Feb 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  008/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Feb  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  012/015-010/015-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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