Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 February 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 547 (S08W55) produced a C9/1f event at 04/1118 UTC with an associated 350 sfu Tenflare. A small CME was observed with this event, but did not appear to be directed toward the Earth. This region has shown some decay since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream keeps the velocity averaging above 550 km/s and the Bz variable. There was a slight enhancement in the low energy protons observed on the ACE spacecraft which correlate with the C9 event at 04/1118 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods for 05-06 February. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 07 February as the affects of the high speed solar wind stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Feb 101
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  016/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  015/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

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