Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 547 (S08W55) produced a
C9/1f event at 04/1118 UTC with an associated 350 sfu Tenflare. A
small CME was observed with this event, but did not appear to be
directed toward the Earth. This region has shown some decay since
yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream keeps the velocity averaging above
550 km/s and the Bz variable. There was a slight enhancement in the
low energy protons observed on the ACE spacecraft which correlate
with the C9 event at 04/1118 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet to unsettled with occasional active
periods for 05-06 February. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for 07 February as the affects of the high speed solar wind
stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 101 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 016/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 015/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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