Viewing archive of Friday, 30 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several small B and C-class
x-ray flares have occurred from an unnumbered region just beyond the
east limb near NE13. No spots are yet visible but enhancements in
GOES SXI images mark the location where the region is expected to
rotate into view. New Region 547 (S09E14) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional small flares are expected from the new region rotating
around the east limb at NE13.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind information from the NASA ACE spacecraft suggest that the
geomagnetic field is under the influence of a high-speed coronal
hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
periods.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 093 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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