Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only a few, low-level,
B-class flares were observed. The solar disk is currently devoid of
sunspots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There may be a gradual increase in background and activity
levels with the return of old Region 536 (latitude S11) tomorrow (28
January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with one active
period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind signatures indicate the
crossing of a solar sector boundary, with magnetic polarity
switching from a towards (negative) orientation to an away
(positive) configuration between 0500-1300 UTC. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (28
January) as a positive polarity coronal hole is rotating into
geoeffective position. A decline to mostly unsettled with possible
isolated active periods is expected for the second and third days
(29-30 January).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 094 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 100/100/110 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 009/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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