Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 January 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. There were only two, low-level B-class flares during the past 24 hours, both from Region 540 (S15W91) which rotated around the west limb today. The remainder of the solar disk was stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (26-28 January), with only a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. An interval of relatively smooth rotation of the interplanetary magnetic field from zero down to about -12 nT started at about 24/1800 UTC and ended around 25/0300 UTC. The magnetic signature was accompanied by enhanced density and declining temperatures, all of which are suggestive of transient flow. The geomagnetic field responded with minor storm level conditions beginning around 0000 UTC and lasting through about 0900 UTC. Geomagnetic activity has been gradually declining since 0900 UTC through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled, with a chance for some isolated active periods for the next two days (26-27 January). An increase to unsettled to active is expected on the third day (28 January) in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jan 102
  Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  020/033
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  010/015-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%

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