Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 January 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels today. A couple very minor B-class x-ray flares became the extent of today's observed activity. All four active regions have continued to decay. Regions 540 (S14W81), 542 (N10W61), and 543 (S16W60) are now H-type alpha spot groups. Region 544 (N08W44) has lost all penumbra and appears to be a B-type beta spot group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated low level C-class flare from Region 544.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A brief period of minor storming occurred at the middle latitudes between 24/0900 and 1200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible with southward oscillations in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jan 108
  Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  021/038
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  015/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  012/012-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%35%
Minor storm10%05%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

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