Viewing archive of Friday, 16 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 540 (S13E28)
produced a C1.2 flare at 15/2304Z. New region 542 (N11E54) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed at
ACE has steadily increased to above 600 km/s by the end of the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to active. A coronal hole high speed
stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 17 and
18 January and could produce isolated minor storm levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 120 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 009/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 015/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 03% | 03% | 03% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 03% | 03% | 03% |
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