Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 540 (S13E43) produced a C3.2/1f at 15/0632 UT. New Region 541 (S09W03) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 540 is capable of C-class and isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Several hours of southward Bz in the second half of 15 January may have been responsible for periods of active conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchrohous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with isolated periods of minor storming on 17 and 18 January due to the anticipated arrival of high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 119
  Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  007/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  010/018-015/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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