Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S12, L=74), produced a C1 flare at 14/1602 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 537 may produce C-class and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. Activity may increase to active to minor storm conditions on 17 January due to increased solar wind speeds from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 121
  Predicted    15 Jan-17 Jan  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  014/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/014
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  010/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%

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