Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S12, L=74),
produced a C1 flare at 14/1602 UTC. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 537 may produce C-class and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. Activity may
increase to active to minor storm conditions on 17 January due to
increased solar wind speeds from a coronal hole moving into
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 121 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 010/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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