Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 January 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 536 (S12W18) produced several low level C-class flares during the period. Penumbral coverage continues to decrease as this region begins to exit the west solar limb. Region 537 (N05W16) produced a C1/Sf flare at 0609Z. The beta-gamma/delta magnetic structure remains intact. Region 540 (S11E68) continues to rotate into view from the solar east limb. A trailing cluster of spots became visible late in the period and detailed analysis is still pending further rotation of the region onto the disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are believed to be due to a transient passage that occurred at the ACE spacecraft near 0900Z. The M-class activity from early on 09 January may have been the source for this event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jan 118
  Predicted    14 Jan-16 Jan  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        13 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  005/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  015/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  008/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%

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