Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 January 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels today. Regions 536 (S12W54) and 537 (N05E11) produced lesser B and C-class flares today. Region 536 continues to show steady decay. The beta-gamma magnetic structure remains evident. Region 537 has changed little since yesterday, a few satellite spots in the eastern most portion of the cluster have vanished during the period. A slight counter-clockwise rotation in the spot group is evident in white light analysis. The beta-gamma/delta magnetic complex remains intact. CME activity was seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from just beyond the solar northeast limb, in the vicinity of where old Region 528 is due to return on 14 January. SXI imagery indicates potential for an active region beyond the solar southeast limb as coronal surging has been common place through much of the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. A slight chance for an isolated major flare still exists due to the magnetic complexity of both Regions 536 and 537.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream continues to enhance field conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be a quiet to active levels. Periods of isolated minor storming are possible in nighttime sectors of high latitudes. The geoeffective coronal hole should start to wane by 13 January with predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions to follow.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 119
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  020/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  015/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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